Essays + Speeches

July 27, 2006

The Wisdom of Audiences

As a person who works in the consulting business, I have a big stake in the concept of "expert." It is in playing this role that I make my living and find fulfillment. A lifetime of studying, experimenting, reading, and writing got me here. Continuing to do those things helps keep me here, or at least I hope it does.

Western civilization's belief systems, social norms, assumptions underpinning educational design, marketplace dynamics, and modalities of self-actualization all conspire to support the concept of "expert." I'm not alone. Our whole culture has an enormous amount at stake here.

You can imagine, then, how challenging it was for me to read and think about James Surowiecki's book, The Wisdom of Crowds.

The core of Surowiecki's premise is this:

“Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant — better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.�

Undoubtedly there will be some reading this who will dismiss this premise out of hand, and think that "it's time to stop reading this ridiculous post right now. I've got work to do."

Please reconsider. The evidence in the book is so compelling and Surowiecki's methodology is so sound as to render argument against his case useless.

Surowiecki's book - and his premise - describe in dynamic terms the behavior of diverse collections of independently-deciding individuals rather than crowd psychology (mob mentality) as crowd behavior is traditionally thought about.

Having spent my entire working life in the performing arts, when I hear the word "crowd," I cannot help but think about audiences, so I've been thinking about this premise in this specific context: the relationship of the artist, arts organization, and arts marketer to its audience and how audience behavior might be signaling its "wisdom" to the artist or organization.

Surowiecki's thinking is not unlike statistical sampling theory. Many independently-deciding individuals will more accurately represent the universe of possible outcomes and produce better predictions.

Surowiecki qualifies his premise with some specific conditions and caveats. First, not all crowds are wise. There are particular pre-conditions and traits that help distinguish the wise crowd from the unthinking mob.

1. A wise crowd evidences a diversity of opinion where each individual has access to private information, "even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of known facts." Audience members rely on what they've heard about an artist or production, what they've read, and the quality of their previous experiences with the venue.

2. Independence: The opinions of individuals within a wise crowd are not determined by or shaped by the opinions of those around them. They think and decide independently. Audience members usually make their purchase decision independently, not within a "mob" dynamic where a group of people might sway them.

3. A wise crowd is decentralized and the individuals specialize and draw on localized knowledge. Clearly, most audience members don't know each other when they pull the purchase trigger. They bring specific knowledge, taste, and experience to their transaction decision, meeting the ultimate definition of "local."

4. The crowd's wisdom can be aggregated because there is a mechanism that transforms private, independent, decentralized, and diverse opinions into collective judgments. With audiences, this happens twice. First, transaction channels (ticket offices, WEB sites, phone orders) aggregate all the purchases and indicate the number of people who have decided to join an audience for a particular event. The audience size may be read as a first indicator of the crowd's collective opinion of the perceived value that the event offers. Second, the performance or exhibition venue itself physically aggregates the audience. The audiences' reactions may be read as a second indicator of the collective value that the event has delivered. The expert marketer recognizes a powerful opportunity in this last crowd-wisdom indicator. Any audience's reaction is not reflective of the experience, alone, but is also reflective of any difference between expectations that were created to drive the purchase decision, and the fulfillment of those expectations.

Considering these qualifying dimensions, then comparing them with how audiences are formed and then behave, I believe that most audiences meet Surowiecki's critiera to qualify as a "wise crowd."

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July 25, 2006

A Deadly Collision: When Artistic Values & Sustainability Values Fail to Align

The Challenge

As we scan the news and listen to colleagues in the field discuss current concerns, we are hearing and seeing what we would describe as a looming value collision inside arts organizations.

The current environment has caused two deeply held values – artistic integrity & organizational sustainability – to wrench people, teams, and organizations apart; especially those principal leaders whose role it is to ensure that each of these two values are actualized: artistic directors and executive or managing directors.

To some extent, this is nothing new. These values have been more or less at odds since I’ve been around, but there seems to be a riper smell to the danger these days, a condition that is somewhat ironic given the explosion of large cultural complex building that is taking place throughout North America. It’s not easy to operate these places. Has anybody noticed?

Why is this happening?

Despite all the buzz about the explosive importance of the creative economy and the role of the arts in fueling same, attracting audiences and growing contributed income have become increasingly difficult.

Because audiences seem less predictable, organizations are reluctant to raise ticket prices. Marketing costs are going up, and so are operating costs. As belts tighten, artistic directors feel like they have less money to work with and higher experiential expectations to meet.

To complicate matters further, as tensions between executive and artistic leaders have increased, so have the tensions between each leader’s supporting teams, both within professional staffs and boards of directors. A host of contributing factors – ranging from generational transition to disruptive technologies – has created an ideal environment for contagion. Complexity has made solutions more evasive and ephemeral. Silver bullets are in short supply.

Artistic works that are believed to be good are not attracting audiences as they once did. Organizational performance results contradict “Build-it-and-they-will-come� assumptions. The artistic staff’s confidence in marketing efforts declines when tried-and-tested marketing triggers produce inconsistent results.

While organizations try and figure out what’s going on, defensive routines emerge. Blame-shifting starts. Marketers look askance at artistic works and wonder, “Are we out of touch with our audiences?�

Without a strong organizational culture – one that characterized by explicit and deeply rooted value systems, the current dynamic steals focus. But because flailing is at least doing something, the players feel better.

As these questions emerge and organizational tensions mount, the values, beliefs, and assumptions that have traditionally aligned and strengthened arts organizations are being tested. This “testing� environment is a tough one to work within and a lot of people are leaving as a result. Is it disenchantment or foresight?

Will the ship’s timbers hold against these swelling waves of doubt and uncertainty? Is a refreshed conversation about the tensions between sustainability and artistic merit worthy of pursuit? How can such a conversation be purposed so that both goals are served?

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July 12, 2006

Considering Brand America

For about five years now I’ve been pondering the impact of the Bush administration’s foreign and business policies on what I think of as Brand America.

I’ve asked myself often, “What are the financial impacts – especially in brand terms – of government policies? Do consumers - especially consumers outside the United States – punish or reward American brands based on the actions of the government of the United States?�

Intuitively, the answer is a resounding YES. Everything I’ve learned about human nature since I was a Levi-clad kid in Cody, Wyoming tells me that people act based on how they feel, not what they know. For one thing, people are a lot clearer about how they feel than what they know. The head has never run a fair race with the heart.

Take a look at the "brand flag" I found on a New Zealand site. From my experience, Kiwis are not exactly the vociferous, unreasoning, malicious type. It is not unreasonable to wonder whether less laid-back types might be far more strident in their protests.

It doesn’t matter whether the local (insert country here) Coke bottling plant is across town or next door, Coca-Cola is an American brand. I doubt whether people living in any of the emerging economic power-players – like Brazil, Russia, India, or China – stop and remind themselves that their own countrymen bottled, transported, or sold the Coca-Cola in the machine at the gas station. Coke’s famous swooshing red curves might well have been taken right off the flag before they were applied to the can in terms of how the brand is linked to the flag. Two symbols, one country, one brand.

Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat - a Liberal, Moderate, or a Conservative – if you know anything about branding or brand strategy, then you know that George W. Bush is America’s Brand-Manager-in-Chief, especially in the new global socio-political consciousness.

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April 11, 2006

THE HIDDEN IMPACT

As I've posted a couple of times before, I've been re-reading speeches and essays I've written in the past. This one was written and delivered to Portland's City Club some 14 years ago this month when I was President of Oregon Advocates for the Arts.

I hope you enjoy it, but more, I hope you can take away something useful.

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As you can tell from my introduction, I'm here as an advocate for the arts. Nothing would please me more than to be able to leave this room knowing that I had converted the whole lot of to my persuasion. I would like to think that you would accept my words on faith. But as Wilson Mizner said, "I respect faith, but it's doubt that gets you an education." So I expect that you’ll scrutinize my remarks—At least those of you who are Oregonians will.

You know, there are a lot of people who just dread the whole idea of someone standing up and talking about the importance of the arts. That's not without good reason. Those of us who do these kinds of speeches have a reputation. For taking ourselves just a teensy-weensy bit too serious.

Kind of like the old story about the actor who testified in court. The prosecuting attorney says to the actor on the stand, "Sir, who is the greatest actor of all time?" The actor responded, "Me." The attorney said, "Isn't that a bit egotistical?" The actor says, "Perhaps...But I'm under oath."

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November 07, 2005

Reinventing Local Culture

Some years ago, I was brought back to my home of nearly 15 years to speak. It was a great privilege at the time because I realized how much I loved and love Eugene, Oregon.

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Reinventing Local Culture
An Address to the University of
Oregon Art Museum Lecture Series

For ten years, I lived and worked among you as a member of this community. During that time I came to love and respect this place and the people who live here. I became acquainted with your frailties, your strengths, your quirky civic processes, your fierce honesty, your egalitarianism, and your dignity.

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October 31, 2005

Mr. Lincoln's Hat

As I have reviewed essays and speeches I've written and given in the past, this one has emerged as one of my favorites. It is simply about how we create meaning and how we ascribe value as a result.

I hope you enjoy it.

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THOUGH IT MAY BE UNKNOWN TO MANY OF YOU, I spent nearly 20 years as a performing artist. It is easy for me to recall the fluttering heart, the sense of awe and wonder I experienced when I walked out onto the stage of an historic theater. It is ironic, I think, that the most beautiful place from which to see the grandeur and sweetness of a theater is from the stage; it’s a pity, really, that audiences rarely experience that. But you, in your work, not only preserve buildings but the awe and exhilaration they inspire. As an artist, I KNOW that your audiences get better performances than those seated in more spartanly, functional spaces. They’re better because the ghosts of artists like Heifetz, Casals, Bernhardt, and Caruso whisper their genius as artists conjure on those very selfsame boards they tread. So on behalf of artists everywhere who benefit from your worry, wisdom, sweat, and no little private swearing—I thank you.

When I was asked to think about the intersections between technology and the historic theater preservation movement, I could not fail but wonder if there is a tension between the two and what that tension means?

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